Ben Santer published a paper in 2011 that said the following:
In the same paper:Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically-forced simulations displays many 10 year periods with little warming. A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a
slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature
records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on
global‐mean tropospheric temperature.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...11JD016263/pdfOn timescales longer than 17 years, the average trends in RSS and UAH near global TLT data consistently exceed 95% of the unforced trends in the CMIP3 control runs (Figure 6d), clearly indicating that the observed multi‐ decadal warming of the lower troposphere is too large to be explained by model estimates of natural internal variability.
So for Santer, 17 years is the magic number.
According to RSS, there has now been no warming for over 17 years and 3 months.
Good news! The theory of catastrophic man-made global warming appears to wrong.