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  1. #31
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    And I love some Skeptical Science:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/arct...telegraph.html

    'The reason so many climate scientists predicted more ice this year than last is quite simple. There's a principle in statistics known as "regression toward the mean," which is the phenomenon that if an extreme value of a variable is observed, the next measurement will generally be less extreme. In other words, we should not often expect to observe records in consecutive years. 2012 shattered the previous record low sea ice extent; hence 'regression towards the mean' told us that 2013 would likely have a higher minimum extent.'

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    Clementine Grace  (17-09-2013)

  3. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    'The second claim that the Arctic sea ice is now 60 percent higher over August 2012 is technically true but extremely misleading. In the summer of 2012 Arctic sea ice hit a record low. Given just how extreme it was, it’s not too surprising that it would not be as extreme this year.
    I agree.

    Sorry to post another graph, but this shows how much it varies from year to year.



    So yes, 2012 was a very bad year. But 2013 was better than 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011. So my point about the snowshoe hare is valid. At least for this year

  4. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    And I love some Skeptical Science:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/arct...telegraph.html

    'The reason so many climate scientists predicted more ice this year than last is quite simple. There's a principle in statistics known as "regression toward the mean," which is the phenomenon that if an extreme value of a variable is observed, the next measurement will generally be less extreme. In other words, we should not often expect to observe records in consecutive years. 2012 shattered the previous record low sea ice extent; hence 'regression towards the mean' told us that 2013 would likely have a higher minimum extent.'
    I take my hat off to those scientists.
    Much better than the 2008 prediction that the arctic would be ice free in 2013!

  5. #34
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    What science and research have you partaken in in regards to climate change (or anything)?

    I'll leave you alone with your David Rose, my husband just got home and I am pregnant and tired.

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    beebs  (16-09-2013)

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    Here is the August update of the satellite based temperature dataset.


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    What if climate change is all a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?!



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    Atropos  (17-09-2013),beebs  (16-09-2013),Clementine Grace  (17-09-2013),FearlessLeader  (16-09-2013),Kirst33  (16-09-2013),RobinSparkles  (17-09-2013),sockstealingpoltergeist  (16-09-2013)

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    For those interested in the science, it looks like solar cycle 24 has passed its peak.

    We may have some cooling ahead of us.

  11. #38
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    Can people please debate the topic and not insult each other.

    Personal insults (or anyone suggesting trolling) will incur infractions.

    thanks

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    Just FYI, next weeks Q&A is about sustainable futures with David Suzuki as the panelist & an audience of scientists & students (if I heard correctly). Should be a good episode. I recommend the sceptics tune in!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    You do realize the thickness of the ice matters right?

    Just like that NASA link provided some explanations as to why Antarctica has more ice, I am sure that the IPCC report and subsequent reports by other scientists will also provide explanations. Not sure what is so hard to understand about that?

    ...
    Now we've been through this ok, NASA are untrained hacks who know nothing, they just spread conspiracies.

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