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  1. #171
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    I do feel for Julia Gillard - she has had a pretty hard time of it this time around.

    She made the "There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead" speech ... but that ended up biting her on the a** big time when the Greens had the balance of power - she had to do a deal with them which included a carbon tax.

    But instead of saying 'that was the price of their support' - which people might have respected, she didnt. She tried to spin it ... badly.

    Then the immigration thing - they have managed the issue very, VERY badly, and it has made life tough. (not debating the merits of the policies here, just how they have been handled). Labor tried with the malaysia solution and lots of other things that they came out in public with before shoring up any kind of numbers.

    Its just bad management that they could not get something that they knew the independents would agree too. Whatever it was.

    The mining tax - again very badly handled by the government ...

    All these things are policy-on-the-run stuff where they had to mess with their ideals and compromise so much to get it through that it ends up being a complete disaster.

    I am not saying the Liberals would have done any better.

    A minority government is HARD and I think whoever won last time around was the biggest loser ... in that they were always going to have a crappy time in office and then a long spell in opposition as punishment.

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  3. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by KatiesMum View Post
    As far as voting goes - remember that it is the lower house or House of Representatives that determines the government.

    that is the one where you label all the boxes.

    In most seats while there may be quite a multitude of candidates, the real race is between the Liberal / National and the Labor Member.

    Peferential Voting
    the way preferential voting happens is that all the "number 1" votes are counted ... then whoever has the least votes, he/she is out, and his/her votes are re-distributed and given to whoever those people put as "2"

    So - if you have 5 candidates

    1st round (primary votes)
    Mary - ALP - 1,000
    Alice - Lib - 1,000
    Karen - Green - 500
    Joanne - Ind - 400
    Kylie - Ind - 250

    then after the first round, Kylie's 250 votes are redistributed. Whoever voted for Kylie, they look at who they put as number 2 and give that person the votes.

    2nd round
    Mary - ALP - 1,100
    Alice - Lib - 1,100
    Karen - Green - 550
    Joanne - Ind - 400

    Now they cut the last person again - so Joanne's votes are redistributed. They take her pile of votes, and allocate the vote to whoever is next on the ballot that is still in ... so any votes for Joanne or Kylie are discounted, and the vote goes to whoever they put highest out of Mary, Alice and Karen.

    3rd round
    Mary - ALP - 1,300
    Alice - Lib - 1,300
    Karen - Green - 550

    This is the last round .... they cut the person who is 3rd - and allocated her 550 votes to whoever all of those people favoured - Labor or Liberal.

    whoever ends up with the most, wins.

    Effectively what I am saying is - in Most cases - it doesnt really matter whether you vote for the Australian Sex Party before or after the local independant ... your vote is still going to go to whoever you put higher, Liberal or Labour. Even if you put them last and second last.

    Notes -
    1) I have discounted the greens as they do not get many federal lower house seats. I think Adam Bandt is the first
    2) occasionally an independant will get in - but currently we have 3 independants and 1 green (as at the last election, have a few more now that were ousted from the party) ... so not a huge number get anywhere close. Most of the races are between the major parties.
    Thank you for that. it seems a really long winded way of voting to me but I guess its been done for this long so far..

    Is there any real benefit to preferential voting over 1 vote =1 vote then? People are usually FOR one party over another.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euphrosyne View Post
    Good explanation. I'd only add one thing, preferences are only counted until one candidate receives an absolute majority which is 50%+1 of the votes.
    At 50% + 1 a candidate can be declared the elected candidate. Even when a candidate has a clear majority of first preference votes and has been declared elected, all votes continue to be distributed until only two candidates remain. This determines the overall percentage of votes for each candidate across an electorate. A full distribution of preferences is required by law in Australian states and territories and federally.

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  6. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by DesperatelySeekingSleep View Post
    Is there any real benefit to preferential voting over 1 vote =1 vote then? People are usually FOR one party over another.
    This sums it up well:

    Advantages of the Preferential System

    1. It ensures that only a candidate with the support of an absolute majority of the electorate can win, eliminating the possibility of minority winners. Put another way, the winning candidate is the “most preferred” or “least disliked” candidate.
    2. It ensures that voters can support minor parties and independent candidates, knowing that their preferences may be used to decide the winner. Thus, votes for minor parties and independents are not wasted.
    3. It allows parties of like-minded philosophies or policies to “exchange preferences” in order to assist each other to win.
    4. It promotes a strong two-party system, ensuring stability in the parliamentary process.


    Disadvantages of the Preferential System

    1. It is more complicated to administer and count.
    2. It can produce a higher level of informal voting.
    3. It promotes a two-party system to the detriment of minor parties and independents.
    4. Voters are forced to express a preference for candidates they may not wish to support in any way. (The use of optional preferential voting, as used in New South Wales and Queensland State elections, is a solution to this problem.)

    http://australianpolitics.com/voting...rential-voting

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    Quote Originally Posted by kalgirl View Post
    At 50% + 1 a candidate can be declared the elected candidate. Even when a candidate has a clear majority of first preference votes and has been declared elected, all votes continue to be distributed until only two candidates remain. This determines the overall percentage of votes for each candidate across an electorate. A full distribution of preferences is required by law in Australian states and territories and federally.
    Quite correct.

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    Given more time I suspect he would have had the numbers. I believe there were a few that were behind Rudd, but understandably didn't want to show their cards before they knew he def had the majority. With the ultra fast calling of the spill, they weren't willing to commit to Rudd, and lose their jobs on a maybe.

    So yes, very good maneuvering on Gillards behalf.

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    Why anyone would want to be in politics, especially PM is beyond me. It sounds like a backstabbing nightmare.

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    Quote Originally Posted by beebs View Post
    Why anyone would want to be in politics, especially PM is beyond me. It sounds like a backstabbing nightmare.
    I wholeheartedly agree with you on this.

  13. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by delirium View Post
    Given more time I suspect he would have had the numbers. I believe there were a few that were behind Rudd, but understandably didn't want to show their cards before they knew he def had the majority. With the ultra fast calling of the spill, they weren't willing to commit to Rudd, and lose their jobs on a maybe.

    So yes, very good maneuvering on Gillards behalf.
    I agree. I think with time he could well have gotten the numbers, but it was premature.

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    Yes props to Gillard for calling the spill so soon.

    I read something this morning that suggested SHE was the one who told Crean to call a spill. Which is certainly a different spin on the whole debacle.

    Bowen, Ferguson and Carr gone today - who else? I haven't read the news for a while.


 

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