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  1. #531
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    Ladies-- this is a great article on NASA's site about everything scientists look at to help determine their estimates.

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Fea...ming/page5.php

    http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/Clim...nt4point1.aspx
    Thanks for those links Kirst. They are very well written and explain the feedbacks quite well. I would you hope that you, after reading them, have realised how uncertain their knowledge is of these feedbacks are.

    This quote from your second link pretty much echoes what I have said in my last couple of posts.

    Scientists calculate that the effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) alone would be a global temperature rise of about 1 °C. However, when the various climate feedbacks are taken into account, the most likely temperature increase following a doubling of CO2 – known as the ‘climate sensitivity’ – is about 3 °C, with an uncertainty range of 2–4.5 °C
    And how do they determine the 'climate sensitivity'?

    After decades of laboratory studies, atmospheric measurements and accumulated knowledge, scientists consider many elements of the climate system to be well understood. But other aspects of the climate’s behaviour are less certain. Scientists therefore compare estimates of ‘climate sensitivity’ derived from basic physical principles with estimates derived from alternative methods, notably computer model simulations of the climate and calculations based on proxy measurements of past climate change. Despite the many uncertainties, there is broad agreement on the ‘best estimate’ value of climate sensitivity – about 3 °C. This agreement between different, independent methods gives scientists confidence in their predictions of how the climate will respond to increasing levels of carbon dioxide.

    Ok. So there is no emperical evidence as to why they have the net feedbacks so high. Just the use of computer models.

    And how are these models going?

    From your first link.

    ipcc_scenarios.jpg

    I would say, not very well. Why did none of these models predict the lack of warming we have had over the last decade and a half?

  2. #532
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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus View Post
    On another (but also related note), I was interested to read in the paper yesterday that scientists have found better ways of tracking and therefore predicting El Nino patterns which is thought to cause droughts in some regions and floods in others.
    I had read that article too. It's good to see some climate scientists looking at natural cycles.

  3. #533
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    I'm happy with my links and everything they state and CONCLUDE. I see no reason to question them, they are far more qualified than you or I to determine and predict what is happening.

    I trust that they are far more qualified than you to make these predictions and draw these conclusions. And I trust that they are doing their d*mnedest to make their predictions as accurate as possible.

    I understand that the predictions are not always going to be right. The world is forever changing and there are many variables (natural and unnatural) to constantly consider.

    We can try to control some of those variables and help the Earth out. I'm all for doing that, whether the predictions are spot on or off by a degree.

    You have given no evidence that you are qualified to constantly dispute an organization like NASA's predictions and conclusions.

    I like how you ignored how NASA explained how they make their predictions and what variables effect those predictions.

  4. #534
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Nette View Post
    As a registered professional in my field of expertise, I find Father's continued pushing of people into answers they are not qualified to make concerning. Obviously father himself has no ethics in this matter.

    Under the current law in the state that I am registered if I operate outside my field of expertise I can be fined, deregistered or sue. Therefore I am very wary of acting outside my field.

    Father, so far in this thread we have heard from qualified scientists, statisticians, modellers and ecologists. They all disagree with you. You seem to disagree with the vast majority of scientist who are eminently qualified in their field and yet despite many efforts on this thread you can't tell us how you are qualified to make these assessments. Luckily you don't operate in my profession or else you would find yourself in court very quickly.

    Unless you can prove that you have some expertise in this field (and by expertise I mean more than a Google PhD) there really isn't any point in carrying on this discussion with you.

    You, like anyone else, are entitled to an opinion. Unfortunately opinion has nothing to do with facts. And before you ask I have no intention of commenting on your graphs. I don't have time to verify their source, I don't have the expertise to interpret the data and I'm not presumptuous enough to think that just because I can google it makes my opinion worth sharing.
    Hear hear!

  5. #535
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    I did not ignore NASA. I said it was a good article and they cover the variables and doubtful points well. They are making their predictions from computer models.

    How long, or how far out do the models need to be before they recalculate their predictions? It would look much more transparent and open if they were shown to be updating their models and predictions as new evidence comes to hand. ie. a pause in warming for over 15 years.
    I cannot understand why they are happy to continue to publish documents that show the current temperature outside of the expected/predicted temperature range.

    It doesn't make sense. Their models were out, admit it, adjust it.

  6. #536
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    I'd love you to answer DJ's post.

  7. #537
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    I'd love you to answer DJ's post.
    There was no question in it. What am I to answer to? She is not discussing anything related to the 'great green con'. No facts. No science. No rebuttal of any of my points. Just more talking about me.

    Do you not think that the models should have been updated to include the last decade of temperatures? I won't sue you

  8. #538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    I'd love you to answer DJ's post.
    I second this

  9. #539
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    Sorry, it was an implied question of what makes you qualified.

    Please see my above post for the answer to the rest of your question.

  10. #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    I trust that they are far more qualified than you to make these predictions and draw these conclusions. And I trust that they are doing their d*mnedest to make their predictions as accurate as possible.
    How can they be doing their best at making them as accurate as possible when the data already shows that they are inaccurate and they are yet to fix them?


 

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