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  1. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by beebs View Post
    "I prefer to think for myself".

    Or another spin on this is - I prefer to trust the experts in the field, that I am not an expert in. Whereas you for some reason, think you are more knowledgable than almost every climate scientist on the planet in their own field.

    I find that bizarre, It is not uncommon either, anti vaxxers say things like you say all the time. "You are sheep, you follow whatever doctors tell you, do you own "research"" blah, blah. Then they cherry pick bits of data to try and prove their point. Follows the exact same pattern. And yet they try again and again, to prove just how right they are and just how wrong almost all doctors and medical scientists are. And they, just like you clearly have delusions of grandeur. I mean - how else could you possibly explain it? They think they are more knowledgable than the entire medical profession, you think you are more knowledgable than almost all climate scientists.

    I find it fascinating.
    Completely agree Beebs. And I do feel this opinion has a place in this thread. If you are going to be continually patronizing and claim that only the info you provide is right and dismiss or ignore all others, then I think we all have the right to question why somebody feels they are right and in turn has the right to be condescending to most in this thread.

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  3. #522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Father View Post
    'Probably'. Does the settled science not explain how they came to that figure?
    From my understanding, and I'm happy to be corrected, that is not the reason for the large increase against what empirical evidence shows.

    The guessed a positive feedback that multiplies the effect of CO2.
    There is no scientific evidence to support this large positive feedback.
    This is really the main area of contention in the science. No one thinks that CO2 doesn't result in a temperature change. No one denies that the climate is changing, it always has. But it is the total size of the effect of CO2 is questionable. They can scientifically show that the direct effect of CO2 would result in an increase of about 1C, but the indirect effect is unknown. Some say there is a negative feedback, whilst others say there is a positive.

    If you are that confident in the science, I would challenge you to find the evidence that supports this large net positive feedback.
    Why are you asking people on a parenting forum to find complex scientific evidence for you? It seems a bit of an extreme request - especially as no one has mentioned this aspect of the science other than you. If you want this type of input to convince you of the science you would be better off on a science forum, no?

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  5. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by Father View Post
    Enough of talking about me beebs.

    Would you like to help out Kirst and help me out with explaining how they go from a 0.14C/decade increase and turn it into a temp increase of 5C by 2100?

    Lets talk science, not me.
    Are you a scientist?

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  7. #524
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    Because he is trying to entrap people, to prove that they are wrong and he is right.


    Quote Originally Posted by Meg2 View Post
    Why are you asking people on a parenting forum to find complex scientific evidence for you? It seems a bit of an extreme request - especially as no one has mentioned this aspect of the science other than you. If you want this type of input to convince you of the science you would be better off on a science forum, no?

  8. #525
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    I think it is important to talk about you actually, I want to know where this is coming from, I want to know why you think you know more about science than actual scientists. I want to know what you get out of all this.

    See, I'm beginning to suspect that you are the climate version of Wendy Lydall - the anti vaxxer than has been all over the news lately, you know, she knows more about vaccinations that doctors and scientists because she has a degree in anthropology.

    If that *is* the case, and you *are* that type of person. Then there is no point in ever getting in to any kind of conversation with you about anything ever again, because, people like that are not interested in conversations, or learning about subjects, or discussing or debating. It is not normal behaviour and watching Wendy Lydall on TV the other day made me question her motives like I am questioning yours.

    Ok, lets talk science for one second. You tell me why 97% of the worlds climate scientists believe we are speeding up climate change?

    Quote Originally Posted by Father View Post
    Enough of talking about me beebs.

    Would you like to help out Kirst and help me out with explaining how they go from a 0.14C/decade increase and turn it into a temp increase of 5C by 2100?

    Lets talk science, not me.

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  10. #526
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    and all that the Lorax left here in this mess was a small pile of rocks with the one word...UNLESS
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    On another (but also related note), I was interested to read in the paper yesterday that scientists have found better ways of tracking and therefore predicting El Nino patterns which is thought to cause droughts in some regions and floods in others.

    Taken from Natural Geoscience

    I'm all for models to help us find out exactly what is going on and how much is natural and how much is influenced by what man is doing, the better they can track, seemingly, the better they'll be able to predict (not just El Nino patterns, but the other stuff too) which may help some people find the finite answers they are looking for.

    ETA: Sorry forgot to say - to me, the relevance of this type of research is that it is looking into Sea temperatures. It looks at why in some areas we have more droughts and in others more floods and if, or how, they are part of a bigger picture pattern.

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  12. #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus View Post
    ETA: Sorry forgot to say - to me, the relevance of this type of research is that it is looking into Sea temperatures. It looks at why in some areas we have more droughts and in others more floods and if, or how, they are part of a bigger picture pattern.
    I was fascinated to learn from the doco I watched a few weeks ago how sea temps affect land temps. The doco explained that because the southern hemisphere has greater sea to land ration than the northern hemisphere it is generally cooler. It also explained that the reason seasons don't peak at solstices is because of the effect of water temps. Large bodies of water take a long time to heat and cool hence the delay. Fascinating stuff!

    The doco was called "Oribit: Earth's Extraordinary Journey". I highly recommend watching!!

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    Sorry Father, I've totally outed you. Are you my brother in law?

  14. #529
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    Ladies-- this is a great article on NASA's site about everything scientists look at to help determine their estimates.

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Fea...ming/page5.php

    The whole thing is worth a read but here are the last few paragraphs:

    'Scientists predict the range of likely temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios through climate models. Although some of the uncertainty in climate forecasts comes from imperfect knowledge of climate feedbacks, the most significant source of uncertainty in these predictions is that scientists don’t know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gas emissions.
    The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue using more and more fossil fuel per capita, a scenario scientists call “business-as-usual.” More modest estimates come from scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells, solar panels, and wind energy replace much of today’s fossil fuel combustion.
    It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after emissions are reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Like a hot water bottle on a cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower atmosphere well after greenhouse gases have stopped increasing.
    These considerations mean that people won’t immediately see the impact of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because of greenhouses gases already in the atmosphere.'

    ETA: here's a website from London's Science Museum that explains all the tools (physics, models, past climates) scientists use for their climate predictions:

    http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/Clim...nt4point1.aspx
    Last edited by Kirst33; 28-05-2013 at 19:20.

  15. #530
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    As a registered professional in my field of expertise, I find Father's continued pushing of people into answers they are not qualified to make concerning. Obviously father himself has no ethics in this matter.

    Under the current law in the state that I am registered if I operate outside my field of expertise I can be fined, deregistered or sue. Therefore I am very wary of acting outside my field.

    Father, so far in this thread we have heard from qualified scientists, statisticians, modellers and ecologists. They all disagree with you. You seem to disagree with the vast majority of scientist who are eminently qualified in their field and yet despite many efforts on this thread you can't tell us how you are qualified to make these assessments. Luckily you don't operate in my profession or else you would find yourself in court very quickly.

    Unless you can prove that you have some expertise in this field (and by expertise I mean more than a Google PhD) there really isn't any point in carrying on this discussion with you.

    You, like anyone else, are entitled to an opinion. Unfortunately opinion has nothing to do with facts. And before you ask I have no intention of commenting on your graphs. I don't have time to verify their source, I don't have the expertise to interpret the data and I'm not presumptuous enough to think that just because I can google it makes my opinion worth sharing.

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