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  1. #411
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    Naw, congratulations Clementine Grace, that is wonderful news!
    Quote Originally Posted by Clementine Grace View Post
    Man I've gone away and had a baby and this is still going...

  2. #412
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    Did The Australian misrepresent IPCC head (interesting!):

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/aust...l-warming.html

    'As we have discussed many times at Skeptical Science, although the warming of global surface air temperatures has slowed over the past decade due to a preponderance of La Niña events, the rate of heat accumulation on Earth has not slowed at all. In fact over the past 15 years, the planet has accumulated more heat than during the previous 15 years (Figure 1). That's global warming.'

    'Unfortunately many people (often even including climate scientists) mistakenly equate the warming of global surface air temperatures with global warming. That is simply inaccurate. Approximately 90% of global warming goes into heating the oceans (Figure 2).'

    'So the reality is that global warming continues unabated. Despite this reality, an article by Graham Lloyd in The Australian (paywalled) claims that the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra Pachauri agreed that there has been a 17-year pause in global temperature rises. Unfortunately we don't know exactly what Pachauri said on the subject, because Lloyd did not quote him directly (which is a red flag).

    The IPCC communications office tells Skeptical Science that The Australian has not provided a transcript or audio file of the interview for verification, but it does not accurately represent Pachauri's thoughts on the subject - namely that as discussed in this post, global surface temperatures have plateaued (though over the past decade, not 17 years), and that this in no way disproves global warming.'

    I'll end up quoting the whole article if I keep going!

  3. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirst33 View Post
    Did The Australian misrepresent IPCC head (interesting!):
    Yet another link from 'SkepticalScience'. I was asking YOU a question.
    Do you think that the temperatures have not plateaued in the last 16 years?

  4. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by beebs View Post
    Forget warming just for a second. What about the severity of weather, severe storms, tornados (ffs), hail, flooding, in Australia. And severe and longer winters in the nothern hemisphere. Do you think that has absolutley nothing to do with climate change either?
    Would love to talk about that too. But I would hope that Kirst can still respond to my question regarding the temperatures.

    Do they have anything to do with climate change. Maybe. One would have to look at the trends.
    Which shall we start with? Your call.
    I am unsure what your '(ffs)' means?

  5. #415
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    Tornados for F*** S***!! LIke as is, I can
    t believe that we are getting tornados!

    In the last 16 years, have our storms been more severe? And our bushfire seasons, and overseas, have they been having similar severe weather? THat is where I would like to start. I suspect that the answer is yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Father View Post
    Would love to talk about that too. But I would hope that Kirst can still respond to my question regarding the temperatures.

    Do they have anything to do with climate change. Maybe. One would have to look at the trends.
    Which shall we start with? Your call.
    I am unsure what your '(ffs)' means?

  6. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by beebs View Post
    Tornados for F*** S***!! LIke as is, I can
    t believe that we are getting tornados!

    In the last 16 years, have our storms been more severe? And our bushfire seasons, and overseas, have they been having similar severe weather? THat is where I would like to start. I suspect that the answer is yes.
    Have a storms been more severe? Here is the current graph from the BOM.
    tc-graph-1969-2012.jpg
    You can find it here.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml

    Along with this quote:

    Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of equator; 105–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. The number of stronger cyclones (minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years.
    That should cover the 'severe storms' part. More to follow.

  7. #417
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    The BOM, and other agencies really don't have much on tornadoes.
    We have always had them, and reporting has improved, but there is no sign of any increase.
    http://www.abc.net.au/science/articl...04/2918660.htm
    http://www.stanford.edu/~omramom/Diffenbaugh_Eos_08.pdf

    That is tornadoes.
    Last edited by Father; 26-04-2013 at 20:41. Reason: Link

  8. #418
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    Annual rainfall from the BOM.

    rain.aus.0112.14997.jpg

    Not much in it.

    'Heavy rain' days.

    R_10.31641.jpg

    'Very heavy rain' days.

    R_30.3309.jpg

    All these graphs are found on the BOM at the below link for those they may accuse me of 'cherry picking'.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/

  9. #419
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    Nice graph and quote. Would you care to quote the rest of the BoM statement:

    'There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of greenhouse warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models.
    Wind speed is only one aspect of tropical cyclones and their impacts. The amount of heavy precipitation from all weather systems, including tropical cyclones, is likely to increase. Increased rainfall intensity from tropical cyclones is pertinent to Australia, since these storms have historically been associated with major flooding.
    Additionally, increases in storm surges and extreme sea-levels are very likely to occur in association with tropical cyclones under future climate change. This change is independent of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and is directly related to increases in global mean sea-level due to global warming.
    Projected changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are inherently tied to changes in large-scale teleconnection patterns such as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, changes in sea surface temperature and changes in deep convection. As global climate models improve, their simulation of tropical cyclones is expected to improve, thus providing greater certainty in projections of tropical cyclone changes in a warmer world.'

    The graph you presented is only based on wind speed data, of which the accuracy of the measurements have improved over the years and therefore the numbers have to be treated with caution (the old data issue again). In addition there is a whole lot more to cyclones than their wind speed, particularly the volume of rainfall with them, that is not shown in this graph.

    Once again you can find a 'graph' or quote to support anything you like.

    As I live in a cyclone area I also pay attention to the BoM models when a cyclone is heading my way. They, like all models, are not always accurate, but they give me enough information to know it is time to clean up the yard or move to my cyclone shelter. Anyone who works with mathematical models (be it climate, cyclones, flood, air quality etc models) will tell you that the real world data will never reflect what the model gives you. However the absolute numbers don't matter, what matters is that the model provides an indication of the most likely outcome. That is what the climate change models are telling us, the most likely outcome. Just because the actual data does not match the model exactly does not mean the model is wrong.

    There is too much evidence to support the theory that humans are having an impact on the planet. We need to start acting and stop arguing about pedantics. My grandchildren will not thank me for discussing the minutiae, instead of trying to do something about it.

  10. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to DJ Nette For This Useful Post:

    Atropos  (26-04-2013),Busy-Bee  (26-04-2013),Kirst33  (26-04-2013)

  11. #420
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    I have not seen any data at this stage showing a trend in bushfires. Again, we have always had these unfortunately.
    But I would suggest that the bigger cause for severe bushfires is actually environmental policies which prohibit clearing and fuel removal.


 

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